Possible Efects of the Iranian Nuclear Crisis on Turkey

Board of Wise Men
06 January 2015
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Since 2002, the Iranian nuclear dilemma continues to top international headlines. This same crisis is of great importance to Turkey, due partly to the fact that Iran borders Turkey and hence, influences its geopolitical future. Turkey’s effort to mediate and alleviate the effects of this crisis continues with steadfast determination; Turkey has actively been a part of the solution team for over two years now. These kinds of diplomatic engagements are rendered more important, especially given that the U.S. and E.U. are reasonably embroiled within the conflict, in order to secure the continuation of diplomatic efforts---efforts only made available with active Turkish decision-making and conflict resolution contributions.

In the “Possible Effects of the Iranian Nuclear Crisis on Turkey” report, three main conjectural scenarios concerning the future of the crisis’ influence on Turkey have been entertained. Within the scope of this report, a possible military action against Iran, Iran ‘closing-down’ the Straits of Hormuz and the outbreak of mass Shia-Sunni conflict have all been included as to provide a holistic analysis as possible. How these scenarios might influence and trigger one-another has also been analyzed mainly to conclude that none hold priority with regard to their potential and likely actualization.

The fact that these diplomatic efforts are failing coupled with a continued conflictual impasse and fading of peaceful solutions, has increased the likelihood of violence and the potential occurrence of ‘worst-case’ scenarios. To this end, this report has predominantly espoused a ‘realist’ perspective and has borrowed heavily from a previous report of ours: “Iran at the Center of Chaos Scenarios”. This report was duly presented to, debated amongst, approved by and published with approval by the Wise Men Center’s chairman’s board on April 20 2012. We would hereby like to extend our gratitude to this board for its ever-present input-output critical feedback and dedicated criticism. We fully accept any short-coming or errors this report may entail. We hope this report will be of great use and aid to its readers.

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