Can Turkey Rely on NATO in the Face of Threats Emanating from its Southern and Eastern Neighbors?

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Complex deterrence has become a widely debated issue amongst IR scholars since the 1990s, due to the question of whether a US-NATO extended deterrence is capable of preventing low levels of conventional skirmishes under current security conditions. What is more important in the works of scholars such as T.V.Paul, is that the credibility of extended deterrence is once again being questioned in the face of a rise in WMD hopefuls and the existence of non-state radical groups.  For instance in the case of the Korean Peninsula, the US has been obliged to give further security guarantees to South Korea with the aim of bolstering the US extended deterrence which was unable to prevent conventional assaults by North Korea against the South in 2010.

Moreover, the concept of deterrence has already become a complex matter due to the radical changes occurring in the field of security in the present international system. Firstly, since the end of the Cold War there has been an observable increase in the numbers of both state and non-state actors. In the aftermath of the Arab Spring, the world community has witnessed the manner in which Middle Eastern autocracies have launched initiated state terrorism against their own people in order to guarantee regime survival. With the exception of Tunisia, the rise of counter-revolutions in the Middle East post Arab Spring has resulted in either the establishment of military tutelage systems or the outbreak of chaotic civil wars thought the region.  

Secondly, the international system is currently facing the challenge of a mushrooming of radical groups operating in different parts of the Middle East as a direct result of increasing state failure. For example, in Syria, al-Qaeda or related off-shot groups are gaining ground and are now becoming a security threat to other states within the region. The mobility of foreign terrorist fighters is also becoming a new security concern. Groups of foreign fighters travelling from the Euro-Atlantic region and fighting with ISIS/ISIL are now becoming potential instigators of terrorist acts upon their return to Europe.



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