The Consequences of Brexit: What lies ahead for the transatlantic community and Turkey?

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The referendum to be held in June 2016 on United Kingdom’s membership in the European. Union will likely be a game changer development in global politics. The results of the referendum will certainly have too great an impact on many issues, such as the future of the EU integration process as a post-modern supranational peace project, the power balances inside the EU, the future of the transatlantic community, the United States’ approach towards Europe and its European allies, the success of the EU to act as a global power in the emerging world order, the role and influence of United Kingdom in global politics, as well as the way how other global actors view the EU. Whether or not the United Kingdom remains in the EU will also affect the modalities of Turkey’s relationship with the EU as many inside the EU and Turkey have already begun contemplating alternative scenarios as for the future. This short essay is a modest attempt at offering an informed guess as to the points raised above. 

 

To begin with the future of the EU, the United Kingdom’s withdrawal from the EU, the so-called Brexit, will likely put a dent on the supranational and post-modern identity of the EU integration process. This is so mainly because the particular European circles who are predisposed to put national concerns at the center of their political calculus and view the strengthening of Eurocracy in Brussels with contempt will grow much stronger than ever in the years ahead. The ones who are skeptical about pooling sovereignty, open-border regimes and globalization process will likely feel more emboldened in future to question EU’s democracy deficit problem, welcoming approach towards migrants and refugees, as well as strict austerity policies adopted under German influence with a view to dealing with the latest Euro-zone crisis.

 

The United Kingdom, since its accession to the Union in 1973, has always argued for looser intergovernmental integration process inside the EU, defining the project as part of European efforts to bring into existence a free trade area with national government having the final say over as many issues as possible, particularly those relating to sovereign rights. Britain neither joined the Schengen area nor adopted Euro as its currency. Besides, it has persistently argued for the liberalization, deregulation and privatization of European market, as well as the maintenance of strong bonds between the two shores of the Atlantic.

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